Commodity
Cocoa
The front-month ICE cocoa futures price in US dollars per metric ton. With supply concentrated in Ivory Coast and Ghana it is extremely sensitive to harvest shocks, as the record 2024 rally showed — the emblematic supply-shock soft commodity.
Latest
6,175 USD/t
+118.0 USD/t
At a glance
Cocoa: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, Cocoa is 6,175 USD/t. It is 118.0 USD/t higher than 6,057 USD/t on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-14 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 57th percentile. Available history covers 2000-01-03 to 2026-09-04 with 6,690 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-14–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- Yahoo Finance
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
Cocoa
2000-01-03–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 6,175 USD/t | 2026-09-03 | 118.0 USD/t |
| 2026-09-03 | 6,057 USD/t | 2026-09-02 | -197.0 USD/t |
| 2026-09-02 | 6,254 USD/t | 2026-09-01 | -298.0 USD/t |
| 2026-09-01 | 6,552 USD/t | 2026-08-31 | -98.00 USD/t |
| 2026-08-31 | 6,650 USD/t | 2026-08-28 | 123.0 USD/t |
| 2026-08-28 | 6,527 USD/t | 2026-08-27 | 372.0 USD/t |
| 2026-08-27 | 6,155 USD/t | 2026-08-26 | 338.0 USD/t |
| 2026-08-26 | 5,817 USD/t | 2026-08-25 | 58.00 USD/t |
| 2026-08-25 | 5,759 USD/t | 2026-08-24 | -61.00 USD/t |
| 2026-08-24 | 5,820 USD/t | 2026-08-21 | -170.0 USD/t |
Source: Yahoo Finance
Interpretation guide
Cocoa futures: extreme price shocks from concentrated supply
Cocoa futures trade in US dollars per metric ton on ICE. With over half of world supply from just Ivory Coast and Ghana, a West African crop failure can multiply the price — the 2024 record rally made it the textbook supply-shock commodity.
What to check
The variables that matter are West African rainfall, black pod disease, aging trees, and the government farm-gate pricing systems. Supply concentrated in two countries cannot be diversified — the structural fragility that sets cocoa apart.
- The main-crop outlook from October sets the year's big price direction.
- Port arrivals data from producer countries is the fastest read on the harvest.
- When depleted stocks meet a failed crop, as in 2024, only demand destruction corrects the price.
Interpretation rules
Cocoa spikes are an agricultural story, not a macro one, so links to other assets are limited. As an indicator it is a specimen of how concentrated-supply commodities behave under climate change, with cost pass-through to food companies and CPI as the thing to watch.
- While a spike holds, chocolate shrinkflation and substitution spread through the category.
- Strength alongside coffee and sugar marks a climate-premium phase across the softs.
- Defer calling the top until demand destruction shows up in grinding statistics.
How to apply it
Cocoa's volatility is extreme, so it suits reading cost and inflation pass-through rather than directional bets. Use it as background for confectioner margin pressure in surge phases and for its contribution to consumer prices via pass-through.
- In surges, check downgrade risk in margin guidance at chocolate-heavy food companies.
- Falling grinding volumes signal that price-driven demand destruction has begun.
- Once origin recovery and stock rebuilds are confirmed, the retracement can be as fast as the rally.