Risk and sentiment
Kimchi Premium
The percentage by which bitcoin trades higher on Korean exchanges than the global price converted at the won exchange rate. A widening premium signals overheating demand and crowding inside Korea.
At a glance
Kimchi Premium: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-18, Kimchi Premium is -0.60 %. It is 0.26 pp lower than -0.34 % on 2026-09-17.
Across 227 available observations from 2026-02-04 to 2026-09-18, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 32nd percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2026-02-04–2026-09-18
- Observations · observed cadence
- 227 · Daily
- Data source
- Upbit / Yahoo Finance
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
Kimchi Premium
2026-02-04–2026-09-18
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | -0.60 % | 2026-09-17 | -0.26 %p |
| 2026-09-17 | -0.34 % | 2026-09-16 | -0.36 %p |
| 2026-09-16 | 0.02 % | 2026-09-15 | 0.13 %p |
| 2026-09-15 | -0.11 % | 2026-09-14 | -0.59 %p |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.48 % | 2026-09-13 | -0.68 %p |
| 2026-09-13 | 1.16 % | 2026-09-12 | 0.29 %p |
| 2026-09-12 | 0.87 % | 2026-09-11 | -0.23 %p |
| 2026-09-11 | 1.10 % | 2026-09-10 | -0.34 %p |
| 2026-09-10 | 1.44 % | 2026-09-09 | -0.09 %p |
| 2026-09-09 | 1.53 % | 2026-09-08 | 0.27 %p |
Source: Upbit / Yahoo Finance
Interpretation guide
The kimchi premium: putting a number on Korean speculative heat
The kimchi premium measures how much more bitcoin costs on Korean exchanges than the global dollar price converted at USD/KRW, in percent. Because FX regulations restrict the arbitrage that would close the gap, the premium persists — and has long served as a thermometer of Korean retail exuberance and capitulation.
Why the gap exists
Identical assets should trade at one price, but Korean remittance limits and transfer restrictions keep arbitrage from closing the gap freely. Strong domestic buying stretches the premium; domestic cooling pulls it toward zero or negative (a reverse premium).
- A widening premium is direct evidence of excess domestic demand versus the world.
- A reverse premium means domestic capitulation or cooling relative to global markets.
- During sharp FX swings the figure can distort temporarily depending on the conversion basis.
What history shows
In the 2017-18 mania the premium exceeded 50%, peaking alongside Korea's retail frenzy. In later cycles, rapid premium expansions have recurred in the late stages of domestic retail overheating.
- A fast move into double digits reads as a domestic-sentiment overheating warning.
- Rallies with a persistently low premium are more likely institution- or offshore-led.
- Premium collapses into reversal territory have marked capitulation-driven bottoming phases.
Uses and misreads
Beyond crypto, the premium doubles as a gauge of Korean retail risk appetite. But the exact figure varies by exchange and conversion basis, and regulatory shifts can move its structural level.
- Premium heat plus KOSDAQ theme heat together suggest a late-stage domestic liquidity market.
- Trend turns (expanding to contracting) matter more than any absolute level.
- Retail arbitrage attempts against the premium carry transfer and regulatory risks that rarely pay.