Risk and sentiment
US 10Y-2Y Spread
US 10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year Treasury yield.
At a glance
US 10Y-2Y Spread: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-07-21, US 10Y-2Y Spread is 0.37 pp. It is 0.02 pp lower than 0.39 pp on 2026-07-20.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-07-20 to 2026-07-21, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 69th percentile. Available history covers 2016-05-19 to 2026-07-21 with 2,542 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-07-20–2026-07-21
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 10Y-2Y Spread
2016-05-19–2026-07-21
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
The 10y-2y spread: recession-signal history and re-steepening
The US 10Y-2Y Spread subtracts the 2-year Treasury yield from the 10-year. Its flips into negative territory — inversions — have preceded major US recessions repeatedly since the 1970s, making it the most famous recession leading indicator. Nearly everything about interpreting it comes down to one fact: the lag between signal and recession is long and irregular.
Why inversions have led recessions
A normal curve pays more for lending longer. An inversion is the market’s collective bet that the Fed is tight now but will eventually be forced to cut as the economy rolls over. Because banks borrow short and lend long, inversion also squeezes lending margins, tightening credit supply through a real channel.
- Most past US recessions began roughly six to twenty-four months after inversion — a wide and uneven lag.
- The prevailing view holds that the duration of an inversion carries more signal weight than its depth.
- Equities have posted large gains during inversions before, so the spread is unsuitable as a sell-timing tool.
The un-inversion phase can be the dangerous part
Historically, risk has clustered not in the inverted state itself but in the re-steepening phase when the inversion unwinds. Which leg drives the unwind determines what it means.
- Bull steepening led by a collapsing 2-year can reflect cut pricing on imminent recession — the combination to watch most warily.
- Bear steepening led by a rising 10-year may instead reflect growth repricing or Treasury supply pressure.
- Once re-steepening starts, open US Treasury 2Y and US Treasury 10Y to identify which leg moved, not just the spread value.
A cross-check list for Korean investors
A US recession feeds straight into export-dependent Korean corporate earnings and the KOSPI, making this spread a core background indicator for Korean investors too. The standard practice is to validate its signal with labor and credit data rather than use it alone.
- Verify the signal by checking whether the US Unemployment Rate and US Initial Jobless Claims on TapeFlow deteriorate together.
- A simultaneous widening in US High Yield OAS means the bond-market warning is spreading into credit markets.
- The most common misreading — ‘inverted, so a crash is imminent’ — ignores the long, irregular lag built into this signal.