Risk and sentiment
US Treasury 10Y
The US 10-year Treasury yield, a key signal for discount-rate pressure and global risk appetite.
At a glance
US Treasury 10Y: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-05-28, US Treasury 10Y is 4.45 %. It is 0.03 pp lower than 4.48 % on 2026-05-27.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-05-26 to 2026-05-28, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 86th percentile. Available history covers 2016-01-04 to 2026-05-28 with 2,601 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-05-26–2026-05-28
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US Treasury 10Y
2016-01-04–2026-05-28
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
The US 10-year: the denominator of global asset prices
The US 10-year Treasury yield is the long-term rate of the world’s deepest bond market and the de facto benchmark discount rate for valuing assets everywhere. When it rises, the present value of future cash flows shrinks, hitting growth stocks — whose earnings sit far in the future — hardest. Crucially, it is not set by the Fed but priced by markets weighing growth, inflation, and supply.
A discount rate built from three forces
The 10-year yield decomposes into the real rate, expected inflation, and the term premium compensating for long-duration uncertainty. The same rise means different things for equities depending on which force drove it.
- A growth-driven rise can favor cyclicals, while a real-rate-driven rise compresses valuations across the board.
- When fiscal deficits and Treasury issuance dominate headlines, check whether the term premium is expanding.
- Historically it is the speed of the climb over a short window, not the level, that has triggered equity corrections.
The tug-of-war with growth-stock valuations
High-growth technology valuations depend on discounting distant earnings back to the present, making them unusually sensitive to this yield. Yet the yield-equity correlation flips across regimes, so a mechanical formula is dangerous.
- In sharp yield spikes, Nasdaq and KOSPI growth names have repeatedly lagged value stocks.
- A plunge in yields driven by recession fear is often bad for equities despite the lower discount rate.
- When yields and stocks rise together, growth optimism may be the driver — decompose the move before concluding.
Co-movement with Korean bonds and the won
The Korea Treasury 10Y tracks the US 10-year closely, so an overnight US yield surge transmits almost directly into Korean bonds and equities the next day. Rising US long rates also work through dollar strength, pressuring the won and foreign flows on a second channel.
- Overlaying it with the Korea Treasury 10Y on TapeFlow shows both the degree of tracking and any divergence.
- Rising yields combined with a rising USD/KRW is the mix in which foreign-outflow pressure on Korea builds most.
- Replace the reflex ‘higher yields mean lower stocks’ with the habit of checking the cause and pace of every move.