Risk and sentiment
US 20Y Treasury
The 20-year US Treasury yield from the official daily curve. Sitting in the ultra-long sector where deficits, duration supply, and long-horizon demand collide, it moves most alongside the 30-year whenever term premium rebuilds.
At a glance
US 20Y Treasury: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, US 20Y Treasury is 5.25 %. It is unchanged from 5.25 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-06 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 99th percentile. Available history covers 1993-10-01 to 2026-09-04 with 8,237 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-06–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 20Y Treasury
1993-10-01–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.25 % | 2026-09-03 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 5.25 % | 2026-09-02 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-02 | 5.27 % | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-09-01 | 5.27 % | 2026-08-31 | 0.03 %p |
| 2026-08-31 | 5.24 % | 2026-08-28 | 0.03 %p |
| 2026-08-28 | 5.21 % | 2026-08-27 | 0.03 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 5.18 % | 2026-08-26 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-26 | 5.17 % | 2026-08-25 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-25 | 5.16 % | 2026-08-24 | -0.05 %p |
| 2026-08-24 | 5.21 % | 2026-08-21 | -0.04 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 20-year yield: where term premium shows up first
The 20-year is the curve's most neglected tenor. Reintroduced in 2020, it trades with thin liquidity and limited natural demand beyond pensions, so when deficits and Treasury supply revive term premium, it is the canary that cheapens first and hardest.
What it means
The 20-year reflects ultra-long supply and demand. Its signature quirk — trading above the 30-year in a curve hump — captures the tenor's thin liquidity and demand gap better than any other measure.
- A 20-year spike steeper than the 30-year signals supply strain and returning term premium.
- Weak 20-year reopenings show the temperature of ultra-long demand directly.
- The widening or narrowing of the 20s30s inversion tracks distortion in the ultra-long sector.
Interpretation rules
A 20-year rise without any change in short-rate expectations is a different animal: fiscal, supply, and demand structure moving rather than policy views. Read it as early bear steepening — long yields rising even during a cutting cycle.
- A 20-year surge while the front end holds signals a growing fiscal premium demand.
- Distortions can widen around the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcements.
- When long-end rises lead, high-dividend stocks, REITs, and utilities feel it first.
The link to the Korean market
Rising US ultra-long yields lift the global long-term discount rate, reaching Korean 10-to-30-year KTBs and insurer portfolios directly. Korea's ultra-long sector leans on insurance demand, and US-driven term premium is the external force that can upset that balance.
- In US 20-year spikes, check Korean 20- and 30-year yields and long-curve steepening.
- Long-yield rises pass through first to leveraged utilities and construction, before growth stocks.
- Shifts in Korean insurers' appetite for foreign long bonds feed back into won ultra-long supply-demand.