Risk and sentiment
US Treasury 2Y
The US 2-year Treasury yield, useful for reading near-term policy-rate expectations.
At a glance
US Treasury 2Y: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-05-28, US Treasury 2Y is 3.99 %. It is 0.01 pp lower than 4.00 % on 2026-05-27.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-05-26 to 2026-05-28, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 43rd percentile. Available history covers 2016-01-04 to 2026-05-28 with 2,601 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-05-26–2026-05-28
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US Treasury 2Y
2016-01-04–2026-05-28
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
The US 2-year: a policy-expectations gauge that moves before the Fed
The US 2-year Treasury yield hews closely to the average policy rate markets expect over the next two years. Because it shifts before the Fed actually moves, it serves as a forward window on policy turns. Among Treasury maturities it is also the most reactive segment to inflation and employment releases.
A yield with the policy path etched into it
A two-year maturity spans seven or more upcoming Fed meetings, so this yield compresses the market’s hike and cut probabilities into one number. When CPI or payrolls surprise, this is typically the point on the curve that jumps hardest.
- A 2-year spike after a hot inflation print is the market pricing an extended tightening path in real time.
- Days when the 2-year moves more than the 10-year signal that the news hit policy expectations rather than growth views.
- Its reaction right after Fed speeches or FOMC minutes shows exactly how markets parsed the language.
Reading the gap versus the policy rate
The spread between this yield and the current fed funds rate summarizes the policy direction already priced in. A 2-year clearly below the policy rate means cuts are embedded; above it, further hikes are.
- A sustained 2-year well under the funds rate means an easing cycle is already substantially pre-priced.
- When strong data unwinds those pre-priced cuts, the 2-year surges and risk assets tend to correct together.
- Historically the 2-year has often peaked around the Fed’s final hike, ahead of the policy rate itself.
Signals for the won and short-term flows
As the anchor of short-dollar carry, the 2-year moves tightly with the near-term direction of USD/KRW. It is also the short leg of the US 10Y-2Y Spread, so half of any curve interpretation starts here.
- On TapeFlow, watch its gap to the Fed Funds Rate alongside USD/KRW to connect policy expectations with the exchange rate.
- A falling 2-year means opposite things for equities depending on whether disinflation or a growth shock drove it.
- Reading every 2-year plunge as risk-positive is a common error that misses recession-driven cut pricing.