Risk and sentiment
US 30Y Treasury
The 30-year US Treasury yield, the maturity where term premium and fiscal-deficit supply pressure weigh most. As the reference for mortgage rates and ultra-long discount rates, sharp rises squeeze equity valuations across the board.
At a glance
US 30Y Treasury: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, US 30Y Treasury is 5.24 %. It is 0.01 pp lower than 5.25 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-06 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 99th percentile. Available history covers 1990-01-02 to 2026-09-04 with 8,182 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-06–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 30Y Treasury
1990-01-02–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.24 % | 2026-09-03 | -0.01 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 5.25 % | 2026-09-02 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-02 | 5.27 % | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-09-01 | 5.27 % | 2026-08-31 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-08-31 | 5.25 % | 2026-08-28 | 0.03 %p |
| 2026-08-28 | 5.22 % | 2026-08-27 | 0.03 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 5.19 % | 2026-08-26 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-26 | 5.18 % | 2026-08-25 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-25 | 5.17 % | 2026-08-24 | -0.06 %p |
| 2026-08-24 | 5.23 % | 2026-08-21 | -0.04 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 30-year: where fiscal risk and term premium meet
The US 30-year Treasury yield sits at the far end of the yield curve, tracked from the Treasury's daily data. Because uncertainty compensation for inflation, fiscal policy, and bond supply grows with maturity, the 30-year is where deficit worries and issuance pressure get priced in their purest form.
What loads onto this maturity alone
Nobody can know inflation or fiscal conditions thirty years out, so investors demand extra compensation — the term premium — for that uncertainty. Unlike short maturities dominated by policy expectations, the 30-year moves substantially on changes in that premium, which is the market's long-run verdict on US finances.
- Weak demand at a 30-year auction has repeatedly been the flashpoint that shakes the whole curve.
- Deficit expansion and issuance-plan news hit the 30-year first and hardest among maturities.
- Pensions and insurers discount ultra-long liabilities off this rate, providing a structural demand anchor.
Reading long-run expectations through the gap to the 10-year
The 30-minus-10 gap measures the extra compensation markets attach specifically to the distant future. A widening gap is more often read as fiscal and inflation tail risk re-entering the price than as improving growth expectations.
- A 30-year rising while the 10-year stays quiet points to fiscal drivers rather than monetary ones.
- A widening gap paired with a weakening dollar is the combination that can escalate into a broader confidence question about US assets.
- Long-term lending conditions, mortgages included, form in the same direction as this segment.
The pass-through to equity valuations and Korea
A spike in the 30-year raises the discount rate on the most distant cash flows, a structural squeeze on growth-stock valuations. US-driven long-rate surges reach Korean government bonds and the won within a day or two.
- Pair it with US Federal Debt on TapeFlow to see the fiscal backdrop behind any 30-year climb.
- Track the gap versus US Treasury 10Y to tell a whole-curve move from an ultra-long-specific one.
- Gold rallying alongside a 30-year spike adds weight to the fiscal-credibility interpretation.