Risk and sentiment
US 3M Treasury
The 3-month US Treasury bill yield from the official daily curve. Hugging the federal funds rate almost one for one, it anchors the short end, forms the base of the 10Y-3M recession spread, and prices the opportunity cost of holding cash.
At a glance
US 3M Treasury: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, US 3M Treasury is 3.91 %. It is 0.02 pp higher than 3.89 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-06 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 22nd percentile. Available history covers 1990-01-02 to 2026-09-04 with 9,173 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-06–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 3M Treasury
1990-01-02–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 3.91 % | 2026-09-03 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 3.89 % | 2026-09-02 | -0.03 %p |
| 2026-09-02 | 3.92 % | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-09-01 | 3.92 % | 2026-08-31 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-31 | 3.91 % | 2026-08-28 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-28 | 3.90 % | 2026-08-27 | 0.06 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 3.84 % | 2026-08-26 | -0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-26 | 3.85 % | 2026-08-25 | -0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-25 | 3.86 % | 2026-08-24 | -0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-24 | 3.87 % | 2026-08-21 | -0.01 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 3-month yield: the curve's short-end anchor
The 3-month bill yield hugs the federal funds rate almost one for one, anchoring the short end of the curve. It is the base of the famous 10Y-3M recession spread and the reference for money-market-fund yields — effectively the rate that cash earns.
What it means
The 3-month yield is essentially the expected policy rate over the next quarter. The information sits less in its level than in the moments it starts front-running policy turns, and in its gaps against longer maturities.
- The bill yield slipping below the policy rate means the market sees cuts as imminent.
- Debt-ceiling standoffs can distort specific bill maturities with sudden spikes.
- Money-market-fund flows track this yield's attractiveness directly.
Interpretation rules
As the base of the 10Y-3M spread, the 3-month's direction decides how curve inversion and un-inversion should be read. Un-inversion driven by falling short rates means something entirely different from one driven by rising long rates.
- Bull steepening — un-inversion via falling short rates — has historically clustered just before recessions.
- Bear steepening — via rising long rates — reads more as fiscal and supply pressure.
- While the 3-month stays high, cash's opportunity cost is low and the bar for risk assets rises.
The link to the Korean market
US short rates set the cost of dollar funding, reaching Korea through the US-Korea short-rate gap and FX hedging costs. While that gap stays wide, structural pressure sits on the won and on foreign bond flows.
- A wider US-Korea short-rate gap pressures the won and raises hedging costs.
- As Fed cuts pull the 3-month lower, that pressure unwinds in the other direction.
- Falling dollar money-market yields widen the room for global cash to rotate back into risk.