Risk and sentiment
US 5Y Real Yield
The 5-year US TIPS real yield from the official daily real curve. As the inflation-adjusted discount rate over the medium term it captures the real bite of Fed policy, reacting to shifts in the expected rate path faster than the 10-year real yield.
At a glance
US 5Y Real Yield: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, US 5Y Real Yield is 2.17 %. It is 0.02 pp higher than 2.15 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-06 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 91st percentile. Available history covers 2003-01-02 to 2026-09-04 with 5,924 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-06–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 5Y Real Yield
2003-01-02–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 2.17 % | 2026-09-03 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 2.15 % | 2026-09-02 | -0.04 %p |
| 2026-09-02 | 2.19 % | 2026-09-01 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-09-01 | 2.18 % | 2026-08-31 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-08-31 | 2.18 % | 2026-08-28 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-08-28 | 2.18 % | 2026-08-27 | 0.11 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 2.07 % | 2026-08-26 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-26 | 2.06 % | 2026-08-25 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-08-25 | 2.04 % | 2026-08-24 | -0.05 %p |
| 2026-08-24 | 2.09 % | 2026-08-21 | 0.00 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 5-year real yield: the real bite of policy at mid-curve
The 5-year real yield is the 5-year TIPS rate — the inflation-adjusted cost of money over the medium term. Where the 10-year real yield is the discount rate on long assets, the 5-year real is more sensitive to the policy path, catching turns in the real intensity of Fed tightening first.
What it means
With nominal yields unchanged, rising inflation expectations push real yields down. This series measures the force actually squeezing or easing the economy, not the headline rate, and is judged against neutral-rate estimates to call whether policy is tight or loose in real terms.
- A firmly positive 5-year real yield means real restraint is engaged at mid-curve.
- Only nominal and real yields falling together marks a genuine easing phase.
- Negative real-yield phases are environments where debt burdens shrink in real terms.
Interpretation rules
Read against the 10-year real yield, it reveals where on the curve real restraint is unwinding. The 5-year real falling faster than the 10-year means the market is pricing medium-term policy easing; the reverse means long-run structural forces are moving.
- A downturn in the 5-year real yield flags the effective start of a cutting cycle.
- A 5-year real spike plus dollar strength is a headwind regime for risk assets broadly.
- Pair it with the 5-year breakeven to decompose nominal moves into real and inflation parts.
The link to the Korean market
The US 5-year real yield sets the dollar's real attractiveness, feeding straight into the won and foreign flows. While it stays high, capital has little reason to leave the dollar, capping rotation into emerging markets.
- A falling 5-year real yield sets up dollar softness and recovering appeal for won assets.
- In high real-yield phases, earnings- and dividend-backed Korean names hold up better than growth.
- For gold calls, check whether this series and the 10-year real yield point the same way.