Risk and sentiment
US 5Y Treasury
The 5-year US Treasury yield, the belly of the curve where multi-year policy-rate expectations meet term premium. It is often the maturity that reacts most sharply when the market rewrites its Federal Reserve outlook.
US 5Y Treasury latest observations
- Observed
- 2026-10-27
- Latest
- 4.82 %
- Change from previous
- ▼ -0.02 pp
Check the observation dates in both the summary and chart; release and refresh times can differ.
At a glance
US 5Y Treasury: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-10-26, US 5Y Treasury is 4.84 %. It is 0.02 pp higher than 4.82 % on 2026-10-23.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-10-25 to 2026-10-26, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 97th percentile. Available history covers 1990-01-02 to 2026-10-26 with 9,210 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-10-25–2026-10-26
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
2026-07-31 → 2026-10-26 · %
- First
- 4.45 %
- 2026-07-31
- Latest
- 4.84 %
- 2026-10-26
- Window low
- 4.32 %
- 2026-08-13
- Window high
- 5.09 %
- 2026-09-30
The horizontal axis follows observation order; calendar intervals may differ. High and low refer to observed values within this window, not intraday or all-time extremes. Ties show the first observation date.
Time-series chart
US 5Y Treasury
1990-01-02–2026-10-26
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 4.84 % | 2026-10-23 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-10-23 | 4.82 % | 2026-10-22 | 0.04 %p |
| 2026-10-22 | 4.78 % | 2026-10-21 | -0.17 %p |
| 2026-10-21 | 4.95 % | 2026-10-20 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-10-20 | 4.94 % | 2026-10-19 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-10-19 | 4.94 % | 2026-10-16 | 0.05 %p |
| 2026-10-16 | 4.89 % | 2026-10-15 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-10-15 | 4.91 % | 2026-10-14 | -0.09 %p |
| 2026-10-14 | 5.00 % | 2026-10-13 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-10-13 | 5.00 % | 2026-10-09 | -0.02 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 5-year yield: reading the Fed outlook from the belly
The 5-year sits in the middle of the curve — the 'belly.' Neither pinned to the immediate policy path like the 2-year nor dominated by term premium like the 30-year, it is the maturity that moves most when the market rewrites its multi-year Fed outlook.
What it means
The 5-year yield is roughly the expected average of short rates over the next five years plus a modest premium. When expectations about the depth of a cutting cycle or the terminal rate shift, it tends to move more than the 2-year and faster than the 10-year.
- A sharp 5-year drop means the market has started pricing a deeper cutting cycle.
- The 5-year leading the 2-year signals the center of gravity of policy expectations is shifting.
- Auction demand at this tenor shows the real-money temperature for the belly.
Interpretation rules
The 5-year is a broad reference for corporate loans, credit, and fixed mortgage rates, so its trend shows how changing policy expectations propagate into real-economy funding costs.
- A falling 5-year plus tightening credit spreads signals improving funding conditions.
- Watching 2s, 5s, and 10s together reveals which part of the curve leads a rally.
- In inflation re-acceleration scares, the belly is usually the first sector to cheapen.
The link to the Korean market
The US 5-year correlates closely with Korea's 3-to-5-year treasury sector and shapes foreign positioning in won bonds. A belly rally widens the room for Korean intermediate yields to fall — a friendly backdrop for growth stocks and REITs.
- A falling US 5-year often pressures Korean 3- and 5-year yields lower.
- When the US-Korea intermediate rate gap widens, check FX and foreign bond flows together.
- For growth-stock valuation calls, pair it with the 10-year real yield.