Risk and sentiment
US 5Y Treasury
The 5-year US Treasury yield, the belly of the curve where multi-year policy-rate expectations meet term premium. It is often the maturity that reacts most sharply when the market rewrites its Federal Reserve outlook.
At a glance
US 5Y Treasury: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, US 5Y Treasury is 4.54 %. It is 0.02 pp higher than 4.52 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-06 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 94th percentile. Available history covers 1990-01-02 to 2026-09-04 with 9,176 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-06–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 5Y Treasury
1990-01-02–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 4.54 % | 2026-09-03 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 4.52 % | 2026-09-02 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-02 | 4.54 % | 2026-09-01 | -0.01 %p |
| 2026-09-01 | 4.55 % | 2026-08-31 | 0.06 %p |
| 2026-08-31 | 4.49 % | 2026-08-28 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-28 | 4.48 % | 2026-08-27 | 0.10 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 4.38 % | 2026-08-26 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-26 | 4.37 % | 2026-08-25 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-08-25 | 4.35 % | 2026-08-24 | -0.06 %p |
| 2026-08-24 | 4.41 % | 2026-08-21 | -0.02 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 5-year yield: reading the Fed outlook from the belly
The 5-year sits in the middle of the curve — the 'belly.' Neither pinned to the immediate policy path like the 2-year nor dominated by term premium like the 30-year, it is the maturity that moves most when the market rewrites its multi-year Fed outlook.
What it means
The 5-year yield is roughly the expected average of short rates over the next five years plus a modest premium. When expectations about the depth of a cutting cycle or the terminal rate shift, it tends to move more than the 2-year and faster than the 10-year.
- A sharp 5-year drop means the market has started pricing a deeper cutting cycle.
- The 5-year leading the 2-year signals the center of gravity of policy expectations is shifting.
- Auction demand at this tenor shows the real-money temperature for the belly.
Interpretation rules
The 5-year is a broad reference for corporate loans, credit, and fixed mortgage rates, so its trend shows how changing policy expectations propagate into real-economy funding costs.
- A falling 5-year plus tightening credit spreads signals improving funding conditions.
- Watching 2s, 5s, and 10s together reveals which part of the curve leads a rally.
- In inflation re-acceleration scares, the belly is usually the first sector to cheapen.
The link to the Korean market
The US 5-year correlates closely with Korea's 3-to-5-year treasury sector and shapes foreign positioning in won bonds. A belly rally widens the room for Korean intermediate yields to fall — a friendly backdrop for growth stocks and REITs.
- A falling US 5-year often pressures Korean 3- and 5-year yields lower.
- When the US-Korea intermediate rate gap widens, check FX and foreign bond flows together.
- For growth-stock valuation calls, pair it with the 10-year real yield.