Risk and sentiment
US Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan consumer sentiment, a gauge of household confidence.
At a glance
US Consumer Sentiment: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-04-01, US Consumer Sentiment is 49.80 idx. It is 3.50 idx lower than 53.30 idx on 2026-03-01.
Across 124 available observations from 2016-01-01 to 2026-04-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 0th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2016-01-01–2026-04-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 124 · Monthly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US Consumer Sentiment
2016-01-01–2026-04-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
Michigan consumer sentiment: from the headline to inflation expectations
The US consumer sentiment index is compiled monthly by the University of Michigan from household surveys, with a mid-month preliminary print and an end-of-month final. It blends assessments of current conditions and expectations, and the same survey's inflation-expectations questions are watched directly by the Fed.
How the index is built and how it behaves
The index is scaled to 1966 = 100 and combines a current-conditions component with an expectations component. Sentiment reacts more to perceived prices, especially gasoline and groceries, than to actual spending capacity, so weak sentiment does not automatically mean weak consumption.
- Readings above 90 lean optimistic; extended stays below 70 have matched recession-grade pessimism historically.
- A widening gap between current conditions and expectations means households fear the future more than the present.
- Sentiment and actual spending frequently decouple for long stretches, so avoid trading on sentiment alone.
Why the inflation-expectations questions are the core
The one-year and five-to-ten-year inflation expectations published alongside the headline often move markets more than the index itself. If long-run expectations de-anchor, the Fed cannot pivot dovish no matter how gloomy sentiment gets, so treat expectations as an independent input to the rate path.
- Signs of five-to-ten-year expectations sticking above 3 percent go straight to the Fed's credibility problem.
- A sentiment rebound paired with rising inflation expectations can be net bearish for bonds despite the upbeat headline.
- When preliminary and final prints diverge, first check whether it is just the normal larger-sample adjustment.
Partisan bias and practical cautions
Research has documented growing partisan bias in the Michigan survey, with respondents rating the same economy differently by political affiliation. Sharp swings around elections may reflect feelings about the administration rather than the economy, so Korean investors should screen the cause before reacting.
- Withhold a consumption-slowdown conclusion until a sentiment drop is confirmed by softer US Retail Sales YoY.
- Reading it with the US Personal Saving Rate shows whether gloomy households actually have room to cut spending.
- On inflation-expectation spikes, assess second-round effects through the Fed Funds Rate path and USD/KRW.