Risk and sentiment
US Federal Debt
Total US federal public debt outstanding at quarter end. It sets the backdrop for Treasury issuance volumes and fiscal sustainability debates, a structural source of upward pressure on long-term yields.
At a glance
US Federal Debt: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-01-01, US Federal Debt is 39.07 tn USD. It is 0.55 tn USD higher than 38.51 tn USD on 2025-10-01.
Across 225 available observations from 1970-01-01 to 2026-01-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 100th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 1970-01-01–2026-01-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 225 · Quarterly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US Federal Debt
1970-01-01–2026-01-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | 39.07 tn USD | 2025-10-01 | 0.55 tn USD |
| 2025-10-01 | 38.51 tn USD | 2025-07-01 | 0.88 tn USD |
| 2025-07-01 | 37.64 tn USD | 2025-04-01 | 1.43 tn USD |
| 2025-04-01 | 36.21 tn USD | 2025-01-01 | -0.00 tn USD |
| 2025-01-01 | 36.21 tn USD | 2024-10-01 | -0.00 tn USD |
| 2024-10-01 | 36.22 tn USD | 2024-07-01 | 0.75 tn USD |
| 2024-07-01 | 35.46 tn USD | 2024-04-01 | 0.63 tn USD |
| 2024-04-01 | 34.83 tn USD | 2024-01-01 | 0.25 tn USD |
| 2024-01-01 | 34.59 tn USD | 2023-10-01 | 0.59 tn USD |
| 2023-10-01 | 34.00 tn USD | 2023-07-01 | 0.83 tn USD |
Source: FRED
Interpretation guide
US federal debt: the structural weight under long rates
US federal debt is the government's total outstanding borrowing, reported quarterly. The size alone is not a crisis signal — but more debt means more Treasury issuance and a larger interest bill, which makes it a structural backdrop for long rates and the dollar.
What matters more than the level
As the reserve-currency issuer borrowing in its own money, the US does not face insolvency from debt alone. What matters is the growth rate, the ratio to GDP, and how much of the budget interest payments consume.
- Debt growing faster than nominal GDP worsens the ratio structurally.
- At high rates, simply rolling over existing debt inflates the interest bill quickly.
- Interest outlays exceeding defense spending is the milestone commentators cite for fiscal rigidity.
The link between issuance and rates
More debt means the Treasury must issue more bonds. Larger supply pressures bond prices and pushes long yields up through a channel that operates independently of the policy rate.
- The quarterly refunding announcement is an event that redirects long yields.
- While the Fed runs QT, private buyers must absorb even more of the supply.
- A rising term premium signals fiscal concerns being priced into the curve.
How Korean investors can use it
US long yields set the global discount rate, feeding directly into Korean growth-stock valuations and USD/KRW. Debt moves slowly, but it sets the floor under those yields.
- Fiscally driven increases in the US 10-year weigh on Korean growth multiples.
- When rating concerns surface, gold often gains even within the safe-asset bucket.
- Read with TapeFlow's US 10-year yield and Fed balance sheet for the supply backdrop.