Risk and sentiment
US Industrial Production YoY
Year-over-year industrial production growth, a signal for manufacturing and real activity.
At a glance
US Industrial Production YoY: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-04-01, US Industrial Production YoY is 1.35 %. It is 0.60 pp higher than 0.76 % on 2026-03-01.
Across 124 available observations from 2016-01-01 to 2026-04-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 69th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2016-01-01–2026-04-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 124 · Monthly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US Industrial Production YoY
2016-01-01–2026-04-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
US Industrial Production YoY and the pipeline to Korean exports
US Industrial Production YoY is the year-over-year change in the Federal Reserve's monthly G.17 index, covering physical output in manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Manufacturing is a modest share of the US economy, but this series co-moves with the global factory cycle — which makes it disproportionately relevant for an export-driven market like Korea.
What is being counted
The index estimates output volumes rather than revenue, so it is relatively insulated from price distortion. Manufacturing dominates the weighting, with mining and utilities filling out the rest — and utilities can swing sharply with the weather.
- When the headline is noisy, isolating the manufacturing component gives a cleaner cyclical signal.
- In months with extreme cold or heat, check whether a utilities spike or slump distorted the total.
- As a volume measure, it stays comparable through inflationary periods, unlike nominal retail sales.
Cycle-reading rules
The 0% line separates expansion from contraction. Because US manufacturing is more exposed to global trade than services, this series dips into recession territory more often than the broader US economy does.
- Positive and improving YoY typically marks the upswing of the global manufacturing inventory cycle.
- Several months below 0% reads as a factory-sector recession, which should be interpreted separately from services.
- Declines approaching -5% have historically appeared mainly during full economy-wide recessions.
How Korean investors can use it
When US factory output recovers, Korean exports of semiconductors, machinery, and chemicals tend to follow with a lag, since Korea supplies intermediate and capital goods into that chain. Given KOSPI's heavy exporter weighting, this series functions almost as a Korean earnings-cycle indicator.
- Pair it with US Capacity Utilization on TapeFlow to judge whether recovering output will extend into capex.
- Solid US Retail Sales YoY with weak industrial production can indicate an inventory correction — a setup worth watching for recovery candidates.
- Manufacturing is only part of US GDP, so do not extrapolate a factory downturn into a full US recession on this series alone.