Commodity
Wheat
Wheat price, useful for tracking grain supply-demand and food inflation pressure.
At a glance
Wheat: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-07-23, Wheat is 706.5 USD/mt. It is 0.75 USD/mt higher than 705.8 USD/mt on 2026-07-22.
Across 642 available observations from 2024-01-02 to 2026-07-23, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 100th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2024-01-02–2026-07-23
- Observations · observed cadence
- 642 · Daily
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
Wheat
2024-01-02–2026-07-23
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
Wheat futures: weather, geopolitics, and the grocery bill
This series tracks CBOT wheat futures in U.S. cents per bushel, the reference price for global grain trade. Wheat moves on harvest conditions and stock levels in major producing regions, plus geopolitics in the Black Sea, which handles a large share of world exports, making it a primary channel into food inflation.
A price that lives on the crop calendar
Wheat harvests alternate between hemispheres, so somewhere in the world weather is always in play. The USDA's monthly world supply-and-demand estimates serve as the benchmark for how much cushion exists, expressed through projected ending stocks.
- When global ending-stock projections are being revised down, drought or flood headlines move prices hard.
- In well-stocked years, production scares tend to produce rallies that fail to hold.
- Volatility rises seasonally around planting and harvest windows, which is worth building into timing.
The Black Sea as a permanent variable
Russia and Ukraine account for a substantial share of world wheat exports, so war, export controls, and port conditions in the region have become structural price risks. History also shows that geopolitics-driven spikes tend to retrace quickly once supply fears ease.
- During Black Sea flare-ups, track follow-up reporting on whether shipments are actually disrupted.
- Export restrictions can come from producers beyond Russia, including India, so scan the news widely.
- Post-spike normalization can unwind gains fast, so chasing highs demands particular caution.
Seen from a country that imports nearly all its wheat
Korea relies on imports for almost all food-grade wheat, so global price rises pass through to flour, feed, and processed-food costs with a lag of a few quarters. Import bills are settled in dollars, meaning a weaker won magnifies the burden even at an unchanged Chicago price.
- If wheat strength persists, watch TapeFlow's Korea CPI series for a processed-food and dining channel.
- Check the USD/KRW series in parallel to separate currency effects from the commodity move.
- Cost pressure on food companies varies with pricing power, so assess pass-through ability case by case.
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