Risk and sentiment
Korea 10Y-3Y Spread
Korean 10-year treasury yield minus the 3-year yield.
At a glance
Korea 10Y-3Y Spread: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-07-23, Korea 10Y-3Y Spread is 0.47 pp. It is 0.01 pp lower than 0.48 pp on 2026-07-22.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-06-27 to 2026-07-23, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 99th percentile. Available history covers 2016-01-04 to 2026-07-23 with 2,598 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-06-27–2026-07-23
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- Bank of Korea ECOS
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
Korea 10Y-3Y Spread
2016-01-04–2026-07-23
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
The 10Y-3Y spread: reading growth expectations from the curve's slope
The Korea 10Y-3Y Spread subtracts the 3-year treasury yield from the 10-year yield, in percentage points, summarizing the slope of Korea's yield curve in one number. Because the 3-year bond is the market's main vehicle for policy expectations, this spread shows the relative strength of long-run growth and inflation views against the monetary-policy outlook.
Three states of the slope
A wide positive spread means a normally upward-sloping curve, a reading near zero means flattening, and a negative value means inversion. Each state encodes a different picture of the economic path the market is drawing.
- A widening spread reflects reviving long-term growth and inflation expectations, or heavier long-bond supply.
- Persistent flattening signals either that tightening has run far enough or that slowdown expectations are building.
- Inversion means the market is aggressively pricing future rate cuts and a downturn.
Decomposing the move: bear versus bull
The same steepening carries different implications depending on whether long yields rose (bear steepening) or short yields fell (bull steepening). Identifying which leg moved is more than half the interpretation.
- Bear steepening points to recovering growth expectations or bond-supply pressure; bull steepening to spreading cut expectations.
- An inversion that resolves through collapsing short yields can mark recession fears materializing — a reason for caution, not relief.
- Always check the Korea Treasury 10Y and the 3-year yield individually alongside the spread.
Korea-specific caveats
The Korean 10Y-3Y spread has not predicted recessions as cleanly as the U.S. curve, so avoid mechanical readings. Structural demand — foreign flows and insurers' appetite for long-duration bonds — can distort the slope.
- The depth and duration of an inversion, and how it resolves, carry more information than the inversion itself.
- Cross-check whether real-economy series such as Korea GDP YoY follow the direction the spread implies.
- Remember that curve flattening and inversion tend to raise margin concerns for the banking sector.