Risk and sentiment
Korea Leading Cycle Index
The cyclical component of Korea's leading composite index, with the trend removed. Turning up through 100 marks an expansion phase and turning down marks a slowdown, a standard cycle-timing gauge.
At a glance
Korea Leading Cycle Index: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-07-31, Korea Leading Cycle Index is 104.2 idx. It is 0.40 idx higher than 103.8 idx on 2026-06-30.
Across 403 available observations from 1993-01-31 to 2026-07-31, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 95th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 1993-01-31–2026-07-31
- Observations · observed cadence
- 403 · Monthly
- Data source
- Bank of Korea ECOS
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
Korea Leading Cycle Index
1993-01-31–2026-07-31
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 104.2 idx | 2026-06-30 | 0.40 idx |
| 2026-06-30 | 103.8 idx | 2026-05-31 | 0.90 idx |
| 2026-05-31 | 102.9 idx | 2026-04-30 | 0.60 idx |
| 2026-04-30 | 102.3 idx | 2026-03-31 | 0.50 idx |
| 2026-03-31 | 101.8 idx | 2026-02-28 | 0.60 idx |
| 2026-02-28 | 101.2 idx | 2026-01-31 | 0.50 idx |
| 2026-01-31 | 100.7 idx | 2025-12-31 | 0.50 idx |
| 2025-12-31 | 100.2 idx | 2025-11-30 | 0.40 idx |
| 2025-11-30 | 99.80 idx | 2025-10-31 | 0.20 idx |
| 2025-10-31 | 99.60 idx | 2025-09-30 | -0.10 idx |
Source: Bank of Korea ECOS
Interpretation guide
Reading turning points in Korea's leading cycle index
The Korea Leading Cycle Index, published monthly by Statistics Korea in the Industrial Activity report, strips the long-term trend from the composite leading index to isolate the cyclical phase of the economy. Position relative to the 100 baseline and the number of consecutive months moving one way matter more than the level itself.
The 100 line and four phases
Since 100 marks the long-run trend, the standard framework reads above-100-and-rising as expansion, above-100-and-falling as slowdown, below-100-and-falling as contraction, and below-100-and-rising as recovery. Inflection points between phases carry more market information than the phase itself.
- Convention treats roughly five to six consecutive months in one direction as a confirmed turn.
- A narrowing rate of decline below 100 is an early recovery candidate, pending confirmation elsewhere.
- One or two months of rebound can be noise, so track the trend in month-over-month changes too.
Why the components matter
The leading index mixes real-economy inputs such as the inventory cycle and machinery shipments with financial inputs including KOSPI itself and the yield-curve spread. Because equity prices are a component, using this index to forecast equities risks circular reasoning, which is its single most important caveat.
- Check whether index gains come from KOSPI's contribution or from real-economy components.
- Verify separately whether rate components such as the Korea 10Y-3Y Spread are dragging the index.
- Advances led by real components are more reliable business-cycle signals than finance-led ones.
Connecting it to investment decisions
Upturns in the cyclical component have historically overlapped with recoveries in the KOSPI earnings cycle, making it a reference for medium-term allocation. Monthly figures are revised retroactively, however, which limits its value for real-time calls.
- Once an upturn is confirmed, put cyclical sectors and small-cap relative strength on the checklist.
- Cross-check direction against Korea Consumer Sentiment and the Korea All-Industry Business Outlook BSI.
- Past values change with revisions, so base judgments on the vintage available at each release date.