Risk and sentiment
US 1Y Treasury
The 1-year US Treasury yield from the official daily yield curve. This maturity distills how much Federal Reserve easing or tightening the market prices over the coming year, a clean read on the expected policy path just beyond the front end.
At a glance
US 1Y Treasury: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, US 1Y Treasury is 4.13 %. It is 0.02 pp higher than 4.11 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-06 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 41st percentile. Available history covers 1990-01-02 to 2026-09-04 with 9,176 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-06–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 1Y Treasury
1990-01-02–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 4.13 % | 2026-09-03 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 4.11 % | 2026-09-02 | -0.05 %p |
| 2026-09-02 | 4.16 % | 2026-09-01 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-01 | 4.18 % | 2026-08-31 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-08-31 | 4.16 % | 2026-08-28 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-28 | 4.15 % | 2026-08-27 | 0.11 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 4.04 % | 2026-08-26 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-08-26 | 4.02 % | 2026-08-25 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-25 | 4.01 % | 2026-08-24 | -0.03 %p |
| 2026-08-24 | 4.04 % | 2026-08-21 | 0.01 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 1-year yield: the Fed's next year, as the market prices it
The 1-year yield is nearly identical to the expected average policy rate over the next twelve months. It carries a few more meetings of the future than the 3-month bill and less noise than the 2-year, making it the cleanest count of how many cuts or hikes the market is pricing for the year ahead.
What it means
The gap between the 1-year yield and the current policy rate is the easing or tightening priced within a year. A 1-year trading 50bp below the funds rate implies roughly two cuts priced over that horizon.
- The wider the 1-year sits below the policy rate, the more cuts the market is counting.
- Sharp 1-year moves right after jobs or inflation prints show the path being repriced.
- The 1-year rising above the policy rate signals priced hikes or a long hold.
Interpretation rules
The information is in the speed of change, not the level. When market pricing disagrees with the Fed's dots or speeches, the direction in which that gap closes often decides the near-term path for both bonds and equities.
- The larger the gap between the 1-year and official Fed guidance, the more volatile data days become.
- The 1-year falling ahead of the 3-month signals cut expectations being pulled forward.
- Where cuts look over-priced, watch for the snap-back risk of yields rebounding.
The link to the Korean market
The US 1-year previews the future path of the US-Korea short-rate gap. With the Bank of Korea rarely able to move before the Fed, a falling US 1-year is a leading clue to when Korean rate-cut room opens up.
- A falling US 1-year tends to feed BOK cut expectations and short-end KTB strength.
- When the 1-year turns back up, check the won and foreign bond-flow pressure.
- Reading it against Korean MSB and bank debenture yields shows whether policy expectations are synchronized.