Risk and sentiment
US 30Y Mortgage Rate
The average rate on 30-year fixed US mortgages. It tracks Treasury yields and feeds straight into housing affordability, transaction volume, and construction activity.
At a glance
US 30Y Mortgage Rate: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-10, US 30Y Mortgage Rate is 6.76 %. It is 0.05 pp higher than 6.71 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2007-07-19 to 2026-09-10, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 92nd percentile. Available history covers 1971-04-02 to 2026-09-10 with 2,894 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2007-07-19–2026-09-10
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Weekly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 30Y Mortgage Rate
1971-04-02–2026-09-10
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 6.76 % | 2026-09-03 | 0.05 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 6.71 % | 2026-08-27 | 0.05 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 6.66 % | 2026-08-20 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-20 | 6.65 % | 2026-08-13 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-08-13 | 6.67 % | 2026-08-06 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-08-06 | 6.69 % | 2026-07-30 | 0.03 %p |
| 2026-07-30 | 6.66 % | 2026-07-23 | 0.08 %p |
| 2026-07-23 | 6.58 % | 2026-07-16 | 0.03 %p |
| 2026-07-16 | 6.55 % | 2026-07-09 | 0.06 %p |
| 2026-07-09 | 6.49 % | 2026-07-02 | 0.06 %p |
Source: FRED
Interpretation guide
The 30-year mortgage rate: how tight money actually feels to US households
Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed mortgage average is the headline borrowing cost US households actually face. If the Fed funds rate sets the direction of policy, the mortgage rate measures how hard that policy presses on the real economy — housing being the core of household balance sheets and a classic leading sector.
What sets the rate
Mortgages price off the 10-year Treasury yield plus lender margin and prepayment-risk premia, not off the Fed funds rate directly. The rate can move sharply even when the Fed is on hold.
- A widening spread over the 10-year reflects lender risk aversion or weak MBS demand.
- Around 7% is historically restrictive by post-2000 standards; the 3% area marks easing-cycle lows.
- Weekly publication makes it a faster read on rate conditions than monthly housing data.
Transmission into housing and spending
Higher rates freeze new-purchase demand, but since most US mortgages are 30-year fixed, existing owners feel little immediate pain. Instead, the lock-in effect — owners refusing to give up low rates — starves the market of listings and transactions.
- In rate spikes, watch starts, permits, and sales volumes deteriorate in sequence.
- When rates turn down, lock-ins release, refinancing revives, and household spending capacity improves.
- Housing leads the US cycle, so this chain doubles as an early recession check.
Uses for Korean investors
Pair it with TapeFlow's US housing starts, building permits, and the 10-year yield to gauge transmission strength. It also feeds through to Korean building-materials and appliance exports.
- A downturn in mortgage rates is an early recovery signal for US housing demand and related Korean exporters.
- Home prices holding firm despite high rates signals severe supply shortage rather than strong demand.
- A narrowing spread versus the 10-year is a financial-normalization signal that supports risk assets.