Risk and sentiment
US 5y5y Forward Inflation
The 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation — average inflation priced for the five years starting five years from now, approximated from the 10-year and 5-year breakevens. Stripping out near-term shocks, it tests the Fed's long-run inflation credibility.
At a glance
US 5y5y Forward Inflation: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, US 5y5y Forward Inflation is 2.33 %. It is unchanged from 2.33 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-06 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 79th percentile. Available history covers 2003-01-02 to 2026-09-04 with 5,924 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-06–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 5y5y Forward Inflation
2003-01-02–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 2.33 % | 2026-09-03 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 2.33 % | 2026-09-02 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-09-02 | 2.33 % | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-09-01 | 2.33 % | 2026-08-31 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-08-31 | 2.31 % | 2026-08-28 | -0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-28 | 2.32 % | 2026-08-27 | -0.03 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 2.35 % | 2026-08-26 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-08-26 | 2.33 % | 2026-08-25 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-08-25 | 2.33 % | 2026-08-24 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-24 | 2.32 % | 2026-08-21 | -0.02 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 5y5y forward: the long-run inflation gauge of Fed credibility
The 5y5y forward is expected inflation for the five years beginning five years from now. TapeFlow computes it with the standard approximation (2×BEI10 − BEI5) from the 10- and 5-year breakevens. Stripped of near-term shocks, it is the benchmark the Fed itself has cited as its measure of inflation credibility.
What it means
If oil spikes but the 5y5y holds steady, the market believes the shock ends within five years and inflation returns to target. When the 5y5y itself starts rising, the shock has leaked into long-run expectations — the outcome the Fed fears most.
- A 5y5y sitting in the low-to-mid 2s means long-run expectations remain anchored.
- Short breakevens spiking while the 5y5y holds signals the shock is being absorbed as temporary.
- A trend rise in the 5y5y is the strongest single argument forcing the Fed hawkish.
Interpretation rules
This series rarely moves much, so movement is the information. A trend break in the 5y5y implies a possible change in the inflation regime itself, and should trigger a rebuild of baseline rate scenarios.
- A declining 5y5y trend shows restored disinflation credibility and supports long bonds.
- When a rising 5y5y coincides with rising long nominal yields, separate it from returning term premium.
- TapeFlow's value is a curve approximation — in distorted liquidity phases trust the direction over the decimal.
The link to the Korean market
Whether US long-run inflation expectations stay anchored is the premise of the global rate cycle. A destabilized 5y5y pushes back the entire Fed easing path, cascading into the Bank of Korea's room, the won, and Korean long yields.
- A stable 5y5y underwrites the global easing cycle and the case for Korean long-bond strength.
- In rising-5y5y phases, check for US-driven steepening pressure on the Korean curve.
- Treat regime-change signals here as inputs to long-horizon growth-versus-value and real-asset allocation.