Risk and sentiment
US 7Y Treasury
The 7-year US Treasury yield from the official daily curve. Sitting between the 5- and 10-year, it is the corridor through which curve-shape changes pass, and a tenor notorious for soft auction demand — a useful read on Treasury supply-demand temperature.
At a glance
US 7Y Treasury: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, US 7Y Treasury is 4.65 %. It is 0.02 pp higher than 4.63 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-06 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 96th percentile. Available history covers 1990-01-02 to 2026-09-04 with 9,176 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-06–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 7Y Treasury
1990-01-02–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 4.65 % | 2026-09-03 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 4.63 % | 2026-09-02 | -0.03 %p |
| 2026-09-02 | 4.66 % | 2026-09-01 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-09-01 | 4.66 % | 2026-08-31 | 0.04 %p |
| 2026-08-31 | 4.62 % | 2026-08-28 | 0.03 %p |
| 2026-08-28 | 4.59 % | 2026-08-27 | 0.07 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 4.52 % | 2026-08-26 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-26 | 4.51 % | 2026-08-25 | 0.03 %p |
| 2026-08-25 | 4.48 % | 2026-08-24 | -0.07 %p |
| 2026-08-24 | 4.55 % | 2026-08-21 | -0.02 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 7-year yield: the corridor where the curve bends
The 7-year sits between the 5- and 10-year — after the policy-dominated belly, before term premium fully loads. Curve-shape changes pass through this corridor, and the tenor is notorious for soft auction demand, making it a sensitive thermometer of Treasury supply-demand.
What it means
Traditional buyers — banks, pensions — cluster at 5s and 10s, leaving the 7-year an 'orphan tenor.' When overall demand weakens, 7-year auctions sour first; the February 2021 7-year auction shock showed it can trigger stress across the whole bond market.
- A weak 7-year auction (widening tails) is an early sign that Treasury demand is cooling broadly.
- Relative moves across 5s, 7s, and 10s separate policy-driven curve changes from supply-driven ones.
- The 7-year cheapening notably versus neighbors marks a supply-indigestion phase.
Interpretation rules
The 7-year level itself tracks 5s and 10s closely, so the information lives in fine relative value. In butterfly terms, how much the 7-year cheapens versus the 5s-10s average reflects the market's capacity to absorb risk.
- Deepening 7-year relative weakness signals dealer-inventory strain and poor absorption.
- Shifts in the Fed's QT pace tend to show up in this sector's relative value first.
- On parallel-shift days the 7-year says little; on reshaping days it says the most.
The link to the Korean market
US intermediate-long yields are part of the sector most correlated with Korea's 10-year, so read the 7-year alongside the 10-year for Korean long-rate direction. Watch whether supply-driven US yield rises start at the 7-year and spread outward.
- Supply-driven US 7-year rises translate into external upward pressure on Korean 10-year yields.
- Korean long-bond volatility tends to rise in heavy US auction weeks.
- Map policy-led declines (5-year-led) versus supply-led ones (7-year-and-out-led) onto the Korean curve.