Risk and sentiment
US 5Y Breakeven
Five-year breakeven inflation — the nominal 5-year Treasury yield minus the 5-year TIPS real yield. It is the average inflation the market prices for the next five years, reacting to near-term inflation shocks and oil more sharply than the 10-year breakeven.
At a glance
US 5Y Breakeven: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-09-04, US 5Y Breakeven is 2.37 %. It is unchanged from 2.37 % on 2026-09-03.
Within the default comparison window of 1,000 observations from 2022-09-06 to 2026-09-04, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 59th percentile. Available history covers 2003-01-02 to 2026-09-04 with 5,924 observations.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2022-09-06–2026-09-04
- Observations · observed cadence
- 1,000 · Daily
- Data source
- US Treasury
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US 5Y Breakeven
2003-01-02–2026-09-04
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 2.37 % | 2026-09-03 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-09-03 | 2.37 % | 2026-09-02 | 0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-02 | 2.35 % | 2026-09-01 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-09-01 | 2.37 % | 2026-08-31 | 0.06 %p |
| 2026-08-31 | 2.31 % | 2026-08-28 | 0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-28 | 2.30 % | 2026-08-27 | -0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-27 | 2.31 % | 2026-08-26 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-08-26 | 2.31 % | 2026-08-25 | 0.00 %p |
| 2026-08-25 | 2.31 % | 2026-08-24 | -0.01 %p |
| 2026-08-24 | 2.32 % | 2026-08-21 | -0.02 %p |
Source: US Treasury
Interpretation guide
The US 5-year breakeven: the next five years of inflation, as priced
The 5-year breakeven is the nominal 5-year Treasury yield minus the 5-year TIPS real yield — the average inflation the market prices for the next five years. Its power is that it comes from prices with real money at stake, not from surveys.
What it means
The 5-year breakeven is the inflation-expectation gauge most sensitive to near-term shocks. Oil, food, and tariff-type supply shocks show up here first, and its gap against the Fed's 2% target frames the policy debate.
- A 5-year breakeven anchored in the low-to-mid 2s reads as expectations well moored.
- In oil spikes the usual sequence is the 5-year breakeven rising first, the 10-year following.
- A breakeven collapse can signal demand destruction — recession — rather than inflation relief.
Interpretation rules
Breakeven direction matters for asset allocation more than for bonds alone. A nominal-yield rise driven by breakevens leaves real burdens unchanged; one driven by real yields is tightening. Watching nominal yields without this decomposition invites misreads.
- Breakeven-led yield rises are relatively friendly to commodities and value stocks.
- Real-yield-led rises weigh on growth stocks and gold alike.
- A widening 5s-10s breakeven gap means the inflation shock is concentrated near-term.
The link to the Korean market
Re-rising US inflation expectations delay Fed cuts, which shrinks the Bank of Korea's room and pressures the won. Conversely, anchored breakevens are the precondition for a global easing cycle.
- A renewed 5-year breakeven rise pressures Korean yields and the won as Fed-cut hopes fade.
- Comparing it with Korean expected-inflation data separates global from domestic price shocks.
- Breakevens and oil collapsing together calls for positioning against recession-driven risk-off.