Risk and sentiment
US Case-Shiller Index
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index tracks repeat sales of the same homes, making it resistant to shifts in transaction mix and the closest read on how US house prices actually feel. Through wealth effects it links to the consumer outlook.
At a glance
US Case-Shiller Index: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-06-01, US Case-Shiller Index is 331.9 idx. It is 0.44 idx higher than 331.4 idx on 2026-05-01.
Across 474 available observations from 1987-01-01 to 2026-06-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 100th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 1987-01-01–2026-06-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 474 · Monthly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US Case-Shiller Index
1987-01-01–2026-06-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 331.9 idx | 2026-05-01 | 0.44 idx |
| 2026-05-01 | 331.4 idx | 2026-04-01 | 0.08 idx |
| 2026-04-01 | 331.4 idx | 2026-03-01 | -0.21 idx |
| 2026-03-01 | 331.6 idx | 2026-02-01 | -0.61 idx |
| 2026-02-01 | 332.2 idx | 2026-01-01 | 0.14 idx |
| 2026-01-01 | 332.1 idx | 2025-12-01 | 0.76 idx |
| 2025-12-01 | 331.3 idx | 2025-11-01 | 1.19 idx |
| 2025-11-01 | 330.1 idx | 2025-10-01 | 1.28 idx |
| 2025-10-01 | 328.8 idx | 2025-09-01 | 0.99 idx |
| 2025-09-01 | 327.8 idx | 2025-08-01 | 0.45 idx |
Source: FRED
Interpretation guide
Reading the true path of US home prices with Case-Shiller
The Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index compares only repeat sales of the same homes, published monthly via FRED (CSUSHPISA) with a lag of about two months. Unlike averages or medians that sway with which homes happened to sell, it tracks price changes on identical properties — making it the closest statistical proxy for the home-price change American households actually experience.
The repeat-sales design
The index pairs records of homes sold two or more times and computes price change from those pairs. A month heavy in new or luxury sales cannot distort it, but the cost of that robustness is speed: aggregation and smoothing make it slow to publish and slow to turn.
- Quality and sales-mix effects are controlled by construction, so composition shifts do not move the index.
- A two-month lag stacked on three-month averaging means it always confirms turning points late.
- For early direction, activity data such as sales volumes and housing starts move well before this index does.
Why prices held through the rate shock
Through the tightening cycle that pushed mortgage rates toward 7%, this index held near record highs instead of falling. Owners locked into low-rate loans pulled listings from the market, so supply shrank more than demand did — now the textbook case that the rate-to-price link is not mechanical.
- A flat index during a rate spike can reflect frozen supply rather than resilient demand, so decompose before concluding.
- An actual decline carries more weight: it means the lock-in effect broke or demand fell even further.
- Pair it with the US 30-Year Mortgage Rate and US Housing Starts on TapeFlow to see the price-rate-supply triangle.
The wealth effect and the Korean angle
Housing is a major pillar of US household wealth, so rising prices expand spending capacity through the wealth effect — which ultimately touches final demand for Korean exports. Direct comparison with Korea's housing market, with its jeonse system and different debt structure, is best avoided.
- A gentle uptrend in the index reads as a floor under US consumption in the background.
- A turn to decline raises the stakes of recession scenarios through both consumer sentiment and bank balance sheets.
- Limit Korea comparisons to differences in rate sensitivity and speed of response, not price levels.