Risk and sentiment
US Core CPI YoY
Year-over-year US consumer inflation excluding volatile food and energy. By filtering out temporary shocks it shows the underlying trend, which is what the Federal Reserve weighs most in policy decisions.
At a glance
US Core CPI YoY: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-08-01, US Core CPI YoY is 2.76 %. It is 0.02 pp lower than 2.79 % on 2026-07-01.
Across 799 available observations from 1960-01-01 to 2026-08-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 48th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 1960-01-01–2026-08-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 799 · Monthly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US Core CPI YoY
1960-01-01–2026-08-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | 2.76 % | 2026-07-01 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-07-01 | 2.79 % | 2026-06-01 | -0.02 %p |
| 2026-06-01 | 2.81 % | 2026-05-01 | -0.15 %p |
| 2026-05-01 | 2.96 % | 2026-04-01 | -0.03 %p |
| 2026-04-01 | 2.99 % | 2026-03-01 | 0.32 %p |
| 2026-03-01 | 2.67 % | 2026-02-01 | -0.06 %p |
| 2026-02-01 | 2.73 % | 2026-01-01 | -0.22 %p |
| 2026-01-01 | 2.95 % | 2025-12-01 | 0.11 %p |
| 2025-12-01 | 2.84 % | 2025-11-01 | -0.06 %p |
| 2025-11-01 | 2.89 % | 2025-09-01 | -0.13 %p |
Source: FRED
Interpretation guide
US core CPI: the inflation the Fed actually watches
Core CPI is the year-over-year change in US consumer prices excluding volatile food and energy. By stripping out transitory swings like oil spikes, it shows inflation's underlying trend — which is why it moves Fed-path expectations and rate markets more than the headline number.
How it differs from headline
Headline CPI is closer to felt inflation but whipsaws with energy. Core is dominated by shelter (about a third of the index) and services, making it sticky — slow to rise and slower to fall.
- Falling headline with sticky core means disinflation is still shallow.
- Shelter reflects actual market rents with a lag of about a year.
- The Fed's 'supercore' (services ex-shelter) proxies wage pressure.
The impact on rates and markets
The surprise versus consensus drives CPI-day trading. Hot core prints push rate-cut expectations out, hitting growth stocks and bonds together; cool prints trigger relief rallies across risk assets.
- Even a 0.1pp monthly surprise moves rate futures materially.
- A confirmed core downtrend is what gives a Fed cutting cycle staying power.
- When core CPI and core PCE diverge, remember the Fed prioritizes PCE.
How Korean investors can use it
US core inflation sets the global rate baseline, which reaches Korea through USD/KRW and foreign flows. Track the release calendar and consensus, not just the print.
- The Korean session after a core CPI surprise absorbs the US rate repricing directly.
- Confirmed disinflation phases are a friendly backdrop for growth and semiconductor multiples.
- Pair with TapeFlow's US CPI YoY and core PCE for the full inflation picture.