Risk and sentiment
US CPI YoY
Year-over-year US consumer price inflation.
At a glance
US CPI YoY: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-06-01, US CPI YoY is 3.73 %. It is 0.54 pp lower than 4.27 % on 2026-05-01.
Across 120 available observations from 2016-06-01 to 2026-06-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 76th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2016-06-01–2026-06-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 120 · Monthly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US CPI YoY
2016-06-01–2026-06-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
US CPI YoY as a release-day market event
US CPI YoY is the year-over-year change in consumer prices, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the middle of each month. It is not the Fed’s official target measure, but because it lands roughly two weeks before PCE, it has become the monthly inflation print that moves global rates and equities the most. What moves prices is the gap versus consensus, not the number itself.
How release-day reactions work
On CPI day, markets trade the surprise relative to expectations rather than the level. That is why a 0.1 percentage-point miss can swing Treasury yields and Nasdaq futures within minutes.
- An upside surprise typically lifts yields and pressures growth stocks on longer-tightening fears; a downside surprise does the opposite.
- When headline and core (ex food and energy) point in different directions, markets usually weight the core figure more heavily.
- Initial spikes frequently reverse during the same session, so avoid reading a trend from the first minutes of reaction.
Decomposing shelter weight and base effects
Shelter is the largest CPI component at roughly one third of the basket, and it reflects actual rental-market prices with a lag of about a year. Year-over-year math also means the figure depends on what happened twelve months ago, creating optical moves unrelated to current pressure.
- Tracking services inflation excluding shelter isolates the sticky component the Fed worries about most.
- If the same month last year saw a price spike, YoY can fall on base effects alone — always cross-check the month-over-month pace.
- In months with sharp energy swings, decompose whether headline or core drove the print before drawing conclusions.
The transmission path into Korean markets
CPI is released during Korean nighttime, moving Treasuries and the Nasdaq first, then feeding into the next morning’s KOSPI gap and USD/KRW. Around each release it helps to watch US Treasury 2Y and the Fed Funds Rate on TapeFlow to see how policy expectations were repriced.
- A hot print that spikes US Treasury 2Y tends to strengthen the dollar, weaken the won, and pressure foreign flows into Korean equities.
- After a soft CPI, the next checkpoint is whether US PCE Inflation YoY confirms the same direction later in the month.
- Rather than trading the headline line alone, form a view only after checking core, shelter, and the monthly pace together.