Risk and sentiment
Fed Funds Rate
The effective federal funds rate.
At a glance
Fed Funds Rate: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-06-01, Fed Funds Rate is 3.63 %. It is unchanged from 3.63 % on 2026-05-01.
Across 121 available observations from 2016-06-01 to 2026-06-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 65th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2016-06-01–2026-06-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 121 · Monthly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
Fed Funds Rate
2016-06-01–2026-06-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
The fed funds rate: where global rates begin
This series is the effective federal funds rate — the rate at which US banks actually lend overnight funds to each other. The FOMC sets a target range at eight meetings a year, and the effective rate trades within it. It is the origin point of global dollar funding costs and the US side of the Korea-US rate differential.
The FOMC and the dot plot
The rate is set by vote of the FOMC, and each quarter members publish their projected rate paths as the dot plot. Markets trade the statement’s wording changes and the chair’s press conference as much as the decision itself.
- What is announced is a target range (typically 0.25 percentage points wide); this indicator shows the actual traded rate inside it.
- A shift in the dot plot’s median is one of the most powerful catalysts for repricing the expected rate path.
- Even an unchanged decision can move asset prices sharply if a single word in the statement changes.
Direction and pace over level
Because the series moves in steps, the cycle phase matters more than the absolute level. The same rate means entirely different things for assets depending on whether the Fed is hiking, holding at a plateau, or cutting.
- The plateau after the final hike has historically favored bonds, but its length has varied widely across cycles.
- Cuts driven by tamed inflation and cuts forced by a slumping economy send opposite signals to equities.
- The gap between this rate and US Treasury 2Y offers a rough read on how far markets disagree with the Fed.
The rate differential and the won
Subtracting the BOK Base Rate from this rate gives the Korea-US differential, and deep inversions with the US side higher repeatedly raise concerns about won weakness and capital outflows. History also shows, however, that a wider differential has not mechanically triggered outflows.
- Place it beside the BOK Base Rate and USD/KRW on TapeFlow to check whether the differential and the exchange rate are moving together.
- The start of Fed cuts widens the Bank of Korea’s policy room, cascading into the domestic rate path.
- Rather than reacting to the FOMC outcome alone, gauge how restrictive policy really is with the US Real Fed Funds Rate proxy.