Risk and sentiment
US Real GDP YoY
Year-over-year growth in US real gross domestic product, adjusted for prices. As the growth rate of the world's largest economy, it sets the background conditions for Korean exports and global risk assets.
US Real GDP YoY latest observations
- Observed
- 2026-04-01
- Latest
- 2.19 %
- Change from previous
- ▼ -0.45 pp
Check the observation dates in both the summary and chart; release and refresh times can differ.
At a glance
US Real GDP YoY: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-04-01, US Real GDP YoY is 2.19 %. It is 0.45 pp lower than 2.64 % on 2026-01-01.
Across 340 available observations from 1960-01-01 to 2026-04-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 45th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 1960-01-01–2026-04-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 340 · Quarterly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
2021-03-01 → 2026-04-01 · %
- First
- 0.59 %
- 2021-03-01
- Latest
- 2.19 %
- 2026-04-01
- Window low
- -0.03 %
- 2023-02-01
- Window high
- 12.56 %
- 2021-04-01
The horizontal axis follows observation order; calendar intervals may differ. High and low refer to observed values within this window, not intraday or all-time extremes. Ties show the first observation date.
Time-series chart
US Real GDP YoY
1960-01-01–2026-04-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Recent observations and calculated changes
The ten latest chart observations. Change subtracts the previous observation; intervals vary with holidays, release schedules and missing data. A difference in rates or ratios is not an investment return.
| Observed | Value | Previous date | Difference (current − previous) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2.19 % | 2026-01-01 | -0.45 %p |
| 2026-01-01 | 2.64 % | 2025-12-01 | 2.16 %p |
| 2025-12-01 | 0.48 % | 2025-11-01 | -0.05 %p |
| 2025-11-01 | 0.53 % | 2025-10-01 | -1.52 %p |
| 2025-10-01 | 2.05 % | 2025-09-01 | 1.61 %p |
| 2025-09-01 | 0.44 % | 2025-08-01 | -0.28 %p |
| 2025-08-01 | 0.72 % | 2025-07-01 | -1.88 %p |
| 2025-07-01 | 2.60 % | 2025-06-01 | 2.18 %p |
| 2025-06-01 | 0.42 % | 2025-05-01 | -0.24 %p |
| 2025-05-01 | 0.65 % | 2025-04-01 | -1.77 %p |
Source: FRED
Interpretation guide
Reading US Real GDP YoY as the growth-cycle anchor
US Real GDP YoY measures how much inflation-adjusted output across the entire US economy has grown versus the same quarter a year earlier. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes it quarterly, and each quarter passes through three estimates: advance, second, and third. Because personal consumption makes up roughly two-thirds of US GDP, this series is largely a report card on the American consumer.
What this series actually is
TapeFlow tracks the year-over-year growth rate of quarterly real GDP, not the annualized quarter-over-quarter figure that dominates headlines. The YoY framing is smoother and better suited to trend reading, at the cost of slower turning-point detection.
- The advance estimate arrives about a month after quarter end and can be revised meaningfully in the second and third estimates.
- Base effects matter: an unusually weak or strong year-ago quarter can distort how the current pace looks.
- With consumption near two-thirds of GDP, the consumer contribution usually decides the headline.
Level rules that help
Long-run US potential growth is commonly discussed around 2%. What matters is whether growth sits above or below that reference and whether it has been decelerating or accelerating for several consecutive quarters.
- Growth around 2% reads as a trend-pace economy; lean on faster indicators for direction.
- Sustained deceleration below 1% is a cue to start stress-testing recession scenarios.
- Acceleration well above 3% warrants a check on whether inflation and rate pressure are rebuilding.
The Korea angle
US growth is a key driver of final demand for Korean exports, which feeds directly into KOSPI earnings expectations. Because GDP is quarterly, markets have often priced much of it before release.
- Use faster series such as US Retail Sales YoY and US Initial Claims on TapeFlow to bridge the gap between quarters.
- When US growth slows alongside a stronger dollar, review won weakness and foreign flows into Korean equities together.
- Advance-to-final revisions can be large, so avoid anchoring a view to a single surprise print.