Risk and sentiment
US Real GDP YoY
Year-over-year growth in US real GDP.
At a glance
US Real GDP YoY: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-01-01, US Real GDP YoY is 2.68 %. It is 0.70 pp higher than 1.99 % on 2025-10-01.
Across 39 available observations from 2016-07-01 to 2026-01-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 58th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2016-07-01–2026-01-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 39 · Quarterly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US Real GDP YoY
2016-07-01–2026-01-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
Reading US Real GDP YoY as the growth-cycle anchor
US Real GDP YoY measures how much inflation-adjusted output across the entire US economy has grown versus the same quarter a year earlier. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes it quarterly, and each quarter passes through three estimates: advance, second, and third. Because personal consumption makes up roughly two-thirds of US GDP, this series is largely a report card on the American consumer.
What this series actually is
TapeFlow tracks the year-over-year growth rate of quarterly real GDP, not the annualized quarter-over-quarter figure that dominates headlines. The YoY framing is smoother and better suited to trend reading, at the cost of slower turning-point detection.
- The advance estimate arrives about a month after quarter end and can be revised meaningfully in the second and third estimates.
- Base effects matter: an unusually weak or strong year-ago quarter can distort how the current pace looks.
- With consumption near two-thirds of GDP, the consumer contribution usually decides the headline.
Level rules that help
Long-run US potential growth is commonly discussed around 2%. What matters is whether growth sits above or below that reference and whether it has been decelerating or accelerating for several consecutive quarters.
- Growth around 2% reads as a trend-pace economy; lean on faster indicators for direction.
- Sustained deceleration below 1% is a cue to start stress-testing recession scenarios.
- Acceleration well above 3% warrants a check on whether inflation and rate pressure are rebuilding.
The Korea angle
US growth is a key driver of final demand for Korean exports, which feeds directly into KOSPI earnings expectations. Because GDP is quarterly, markets have often priced much of it before release.
- Use faster series such as US Retail Sales YoY and US Initial Claims on TapeFlow to bridge the gap between quarters.
- When US growth slows alongside a stronger dollar, review won weakness and foreign flows into Korean equities together.
- Advance-to-final revisions can be large, so avoid anchoring a view to a single surprise print.