Risk and sentiment
US Retail Sales YoY
Year-over-year retail sales growth, a demand signal for US consumption.
At a glance
US Retail Sales YoY: latest value and prior change
As of 2026-04-01, US Retail Sales YoY is 4.87 %. It is 0.72 pp higher than 4.15 % on 2026-03-01.
Across 124 available observations from 2016-01-01 to 2026-04-01, the latest value is at the tie-adjusted 64th percentile.
- Observed on
- Default comparison window
- 2016-01-01–2026-04-01
- Observations · observed cadence
- 124 · Monthly
- Data source
- FRED
A high or low percentile does not by itself make the indicator positive, negative, or a buy or sell signal.
Time-series chart
US Retail Sales YoY
2016-01-01–2026-04-01
Long-history series are stored as real provider observations. Index, FX, VIX, and ratio charts use historical backfill where providers expose it; Korean investor flow and margin-credit feeds expand as stable historical endpoints become available.
Interpretation guide
US Retail Sales YoY: taking the consumer's temperature
US Retail Sales YoY tracks the year-over-year change in retail and food services revenue, compiled monthly by the Census Bureau. It is the fastest broad read on US consumption, arriving far more frequently than GDP. The critical caveat: it is reported in nominal dollars, not adjusted for inflation.
Start with the nominal trap
Because the series is not price-adjusted, high inflation can inflate YoY growth even when volumes are flat, and rapid disinflation can make resilient demand look weak. Always frame the number against the inflation backdrop.
- Subtracting US CPI YoY from the retail print gives a rough proxy for real spending growth.
- The control group — excluding autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services — feeds directly into GDP consumption.
- Nominal YoY running below the inflation rate implies real consumption is already contracting.
Rules for judging strength
A three-month trend is more reliable than any single monthly surprise. When the headline and the control group diverge, the control group usually deserves more weight.
- Sustained nominal growth above the inflation rate signals genuinely expanding real demand.
- YoY decelerating toward 0% means spending has stalled even in nominal terms — a heavyweight recession signal.
- Shifting holiday and promotion calendars can distort individual months, so treat seasonal quirks with suspicion.
Cross-checks and the Korea link
US consumer demand flows directly into Korean exports of devices, appliances, and autos, so a consumer downturn tends to drag Korean exporters' earnings estimates with it.
- Pair this with US Consumer Sentiment and the US Personal Saving Rate on TapeFlow to judge how durable spending capacity is.
- Strong retail prints alongside rising US Initial Claims argue for keeping a delayed-slowdown scenario open.
- The series is goods-heavy, so it can understate total consumption when spending rotates toward services.